NEWS RELEASE - Wednesday 3rd October 2001

"Grave reservations" about Scottish Executive study into central Scotland transport network

In advance of consultation on the future for the central Scotland transport network, TRANSform Scotland has revealed that it has "grave reservations about the methods and assumptions" being used by the consultants MVA employed to carry out the study. TRANSform Scotland is represented on the Steering Group of the Scottish Executive's Central Scotland Transport Corridor Study (CSTCS), which is set the task of identifying solutions to problems on Scotland's Central Belt transport networks.

Tom Hart, TRANSform Scotland Board member and member of the CSTCS Steering Group, said:

"We have grave reservations about the methods and assumptions used by the consultants in the Study. The Study seems to be working on initial assumptions of things getting worse rather than, as they have recently, somewhat better. In assuming there will be almost no growth in public transport usage over the next 20 years, the consultants seem to be assuming away Government policy to ensure shifts away from car use, and ignoring clear evidence that public transport use is growing."

"On the other hand, the Study states that there could be increases of 50-70% in road traffic levels on Central Belt roads by 2020 yet ignores the evidence that since 1995 there has been an actual stabilisation of traffic levels on Scottish roads. So far there is no evidence of this Study giving actual priority to improvements that could effect change in the next five years nor in suggesting that investment should be directed towards supporting sustainable modes of transport."

TRANSform Scotland is seeking outside academic refereeing of MVA's work, and that this should be made publicly available.

ENDS

Notes to Editors:

(1) A copy of TRANSform Scotland's full submission (5 pages) is available on request.

(2) Summary of TRANSform Scotland submission:

¥ TRANSform Scotland is concerned that the focus of the Study has drifted from short-term (up to 2006) to longer-term (up to 2020). TRANSform Scotland is concerned that this is in order to postpone change. MVA had themselves previously stressed the need to focus on what is deliverable within policy objectives in the next 5 years.

¥ The Study's Background Scenario suggests that there could be no improvement in train & bus services when recent evidence has shown considerable rise in use (20% to 40% increase in rail passenger and freight movement). TRANSform Scotland is concerned that these Background Scenario forecasts for limited increase in use of the sustainable modes will be used as a political justification not to invest in these modes.

¥ By contrast, the Background Scenario suggests that there could be 50-70% growth in road miles by 2020. Yet evidence of stabilisation of road vehicle miles on Scottish roads since 1995 (Scottish Transport Statistics, Vol. 20, 2001, p.97) suggests that a maximum growth of, say, 20% on roads such as the A8 or A80 is more likely. TRANSform Scotland is concerned that overestimated forecasts for increases in road traffic will become a self-fulfilling prophesy, i.e. that excessive forecast increase in road traffic levels will be used to justify extra spending on new roads, which will themselves generate new traffic.

¥ TRANSform Scotland suggest a number of detailed revisions to the Background Scenario with respect to assumptions made regarding (i) traffic forecasting, (ii) non-infrastructure issues, (iii) assumptions about public transport fare structures and the price of car use. [See full submission for further details.]

¥ TRANSform Scotland has requested deletion of proposed £250 million M74 Northern Extension elevated motorway from the Background Scenario as, even if it was ever constructed, the completion date will be certainly well beyond 2006 (the short-term focus for the Study).

¥ TRANSform Scotland recommend that the Study evaluate a Sustainable Transport Scenario which would deliver the stated objectives of Government policy. This Scenario would focus on: (i) reduction in fossil fuel use per passenger-mile and tonne-mile, (ii) overall cuts in traffic levels, (iii) selective cuts in road speeds, (iv) measures to enable shortening average trips, (v) implementation of road user charging in certain areas.